Work Plan

2. Description and prediction of the global impact of climate change on building materials and structures

The second step will be developed through the application of the climate models on European scales developed in Task 1 for the evaluation of the impact on the built cultural heritage and cultural landscape. The project will focus on three major threats: effects on architectural surfaces, effects on biodeterioration and response of materials to extreme events.

The impact on building materials will be evaluated by developing models for the prediction and quantification of both meteorological and pollution parameters on materials employed in the built cultural heritage. To achieve this task, the data base and damage functions utilized in previous and on-going international and EC projects will permit an inventory of materials and parameters to be included in developing the models suitable for predicting the impact of individual parameters for individual materials. Different scenarios at European scale will be produced using the models developed on the data collected in Task 1.

The evaluation of the impact that climate change will produce on the interactions between biological particles and architectural surfaces will be achieved through the development of models of biological crust (biofilm formation), integrating variables related to temperature and precipitation for predicting biodeterioration processes in response to major climate change. Different scenario will be produced for different combinations of temperature and precipitation for the different regions of Europe. To evaluate how climate change will produce effects on biodiversity, and alter the current predominance of lichen in southern Europe and algae in northern Europe, a study will be performed on phototrophic organism biodiversity on different substrates in different European countries. The data obtained will be used to predict biodeterioration patterns on European monuments, depending on the biological succession induced by climatic change.

A set of key historic materials, including binders, stones and organic materials (i.e. wood), will be tested in laboratory climate chambers in dynamic environments, imitating short-term, extreme climatic events. Models will be developed to calculate stresses and strains resulting from changes in temperature and moisture content in the materials, including internal stresses due to the restriction of the material's dimensional change or non-uniform moisture distribution. Use will be made of models for assessing repeated variations in temperature and moisture, which cause "environmental fatigue" in historic materials and result in irreparable damage to structural elements. Deformation and mechanical failures will also be predicted.